Possible Future of Bitcoin

by baaaawz

Gavin Andresen was one of the most important creators of the nascent blockchain network in the early years of Bitcoin (BTC), to the point that some believe he is Satoshi Nakamoto himself in some circles. When it comes to the possible future of Bitcoin, Gavin Andresen predicts a dazzling future, culminating in a genuinely spectacular conclusion.

Possible Future of Bitcoin: Imagine it is the Year 2061

Those are the opening words of Gavin Andresen’s most recent publication, which follows an initial prologue in which the author cautions that what he is about to say should be considered as “a little bit of science fiction,” despite the fact that he feels the scenario he describes has a “good probability of occurring.”

In this far-off future, 40 years from now, the price of a single Bitcoin has risen to $6 million. Consider, however, that those future dollars, which have been depreciated by inflation, will only be worth $1 million of our 2021 dollars in terms of buying power.

If a dozen decreases take place during that period, each decreasing the reward in Bitcoins each verified block by two, the miners of the future will only earn 0.006103515625 Bitcoins every block, according to the current reward structure (or just over 610,315 satoshi).

Compared to the 6.25 BTC per block that miners will get in 2021, this is a modest amount of money. However, transaction costs, which in 2061 will amount to around $1.50 per transaction, will more than make up for it “5 BTC is required for approximately 4,000 transactions.

“[In 2061] transactions that take place on the main Bitcoin network have a high cost, mostly between super-sized holders (centralized exchange platforms, central banks, and decentralized multilateral computing addresses) that keep all Bitcoin tokens ‘in the wrapper.'”

These “superkits” are the ones that are now supplying the BT network with services. They are the ones who mine the transactions and are the ones who create them. The great majority of Bitcoin transactions no longer take place on the primary Bitcoin network, as previously stated. These countless tiny transactions are carried out on other parallel chains, with tokens produced from Bitcoins that have been wrapped in a protective layer.

Will Bitcoin be Relevant in 2100?

Gavin Andresen continues his voyage through time with Bitcoin, which is nearing the end of its lifespan about 40 years later, in the year 2100:

“(…) the whales see that the rewards for mining are almost zero and that fewer and fewer transactions are being made on the slow, expensive and privacy-deprived BTC network. So they decide to simplify the situation and save money by shutting it down. (…) In the end, there will be no more new BTC on the network, and there will be no more BTC in circulation on the network. There will be nothing left to fix, and the chain will stop.”

While the death of the Bitcoin progenitor may appear to be a tragic event, his offspring will continue to exist on alternative blockchains. There will still be a “limited quantity” of about 20 million Bitcoins, making them “valuable.” Bitcoin will be the first rare digital asset, making it “the first scarce digital asset.”

While a reward each block may potentially be earned on Bitcoin until 2140, according to Gavin Andresen, transaction fees will be the primary motivation for participating in the proof-of-work consensus long before then. While those who predict Bitcoin’s demise every fourth morning will have to wait a long time, it is possible that the venerable cryptocurrency will retire one day and hand over its throne to the young and dynamic blockchains that it will inspire and who will eventually become its BTC heirs in the process.

These possibilities may be beaming, but they serve as a constant reminder of the obvious: Bitcoin is becoming increasingly scarce! 

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